Issued April 8 2020 – 3:30 pm
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
THIS AFTEROON/TONIGHT: After the passage of the weak wave of low pressure that brought us fairly gloomy weather we are still seeing clouds around this afternoon as advertised. Also as advertised yesterday we are seeing some drying out of the cloud deck and it looks like sunshine is breaking out north and west of the 128 belt. I expect that this clearing trend will continue through the rest of the afternoon as drier air works its way in at mid levels from the southwest and a 700 mb ridge slowly builds in. During the overnight hours I expect that skies will become mostly clear.
THURSDAY: Not much change to Thursday’s forecast thinking as the fast moving weather pattern will bring our next weathermaker along. A strong cold front will be sweeping through western New York on Thursday morning and that front will reach the vicinity of the Boston area by the mid – late afternoon hours. There could be a period of heavy showers and/or a period of steady rain as the front moves through. It looks like the heaviest activity would move into eastern MA between 1pm – 5pm. The indicators for any thunderstorm activity with this frontal passage remain very iffy but given the strength of the upper level support pushing into E MA, RI and Srn NH I am thinking that there will probably be a flash or two of lightning or a rumble of thunder somewhere. I think the best bet for that will be along the S. CT or S. RI coasts where 200-300 J/kg of MUCAPE along with 6-7 deg C/km mid level lapse rates sneak in between 1-4pm. This is supported by the high res models where even higher MUCAPE is shown. There will be strong and gusty winds associated with the frontal passage as well. Gusts upward of 30-40 mph will be possible in metro Boston and possibly upwards of 45-50 mph on the Cape and Islands.
FRIDAY: The front/storm that passes through Thursday will blow up in to a pretty good sized storm to our northeast. This should allow the pressure gradient to remain pretty tight which should lead to another breezy and gusty day on Friday with westerly winds 15-25 mph sustained along with gusts up to 35 mph strongest along with south coast, Cape and Islands. It will be unsettled as an upper low remains close to New England. Clouds and the risk of a shower will be around for the balance of the day. I think it will be a bit on the cool side as well, and I am going to undercut guidance by a bit on Friday. I’m going to go with highs predominantly in the lower 50’s for much of the area.
SATURDAY: Saturday still looks a bit unsettled but a little less so as the upper low lifts a bit to the north. Northwesterly winds will continue to be fresh around 10-15 mph with some gusts to 20 but it shouldn’t be as windy as Thursday or Friday were. The upper low will still b
SUNDAY: The upper low lifts away completely by Sunday and is replaced by an upper level ridge of high pressure which should completely dry out the atmosphere. It looks like a mostly sunny and mild morning. The models are bringing in some clouds by late afternoon and skies will become overcast by Sunday evening. This is in advance of a storm developing over the midwest during the day on Sunday. This system will figure into our forecast for monday.
MONDAY: After midnight Sunday rainfall should begin to move into New England from the storm mentioned above. This system will be moving through the Ohio River Valley/Great Lakes by this time along with a developing secondary area of low pressure near Cape Hatteras, NC. Precipitable water values of .90 – 1.00″ will be punching into southern New England during the early morning hours of Monday and these high values will persist throughout the day allowing for a pretty good soaking for much of New England. It looks like about 1.00 – 1.50″ of rain will fall during the early morning through the early afternoon hours of Monday. The timing of this is still in flux so we will update this as the situation develops.
TUESDAY: Monday’s storm rolls up into James Bay and drier air briefly works into New England allowing for morning and early afternoon sunshine. It appears that a surface trough of low pressure is going to be rotating around the storm and it looks like this is going to provide the focus for some clouds and perhaps a few showers late on Tuesday.
WEDNESDAY: Nothing remarkable about Wednesday’s weather. High pressure building in from the west will clear us out and it should be a rather pleasant day with highs in the mid 50’s.
Bay State Weather 